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LOS ANGELES -- If you haven't noticed already, the theme of this Oscar season is redemption.

From The Birth of a Nation's Nate Parker and Manchester by the Seastar Casey Affleck to Hacksaw Ridgedirector Mel Gibson and American Honey's Shia LaBeouf, it seems everyone is asking for forgiveness and seeking to redeem themselves through their art.

The question is, will troublesome pasts play a significant part in awards futures?

The ghosts of loathsome behavior didn't seem to haunt the careers of Roman Polanski or Woody Allen, who both won Oscars this millennium with The Pianistand Midnight in Paris. And who would know better than the Academy -- more than 6,000 of Hollywood's most elite players -- that most people in this town have a skeleton or two in their closet, to put it lightly?

But the times have changed rapidly, even in the past few years. Social justice must be served, even if that leaves a few awards campaigns in its wake.

That said, there's plenty of time before January, and the potential comebacks are all around us.

Can Nate Parker and Casey Affleck convince voters to look past their questionable histories with women? Will Hollywood embrace Mel and Shia as it did with Robert Downey Jr.? Can Harvey Weinstein regain his magic touch with Lion, Goldand The Founder? Will Oliver Stone atone for his last few films with Snowden? Can Andrew Garfield recover from his underwhelming Spider-Manmovies to put Silencein contention? Will audiences embrace Warren Beatty following a long absence? Will Ben Younger return to Hollywood's good graces thanks to Bleed for This, and will that film, along with Sully, provide the one-two punch that Aaron Eckhart needs to score his first-ever nomination?

These are just some of the comeback storylines that should keep us entertained over the next few months of the ever-expanding awards season.

The fall brings with it film festivals, and prior to last week, the awards cognoscenti generally agreed that we’d only seen two real Oscar contenders thus far — Manchester by the Seaand The Birth of a Nation, which still has a chance to pick itself up off the mat.

Reviews out of Venice and Telluride also indicate that La La Land, Moonlightand Sullywill also be forces to reckon with.

We'll be keeping an eye on the big-budget box office behemoths in our future as well, such as the Star Warsstory Rogue One, the Harry Potter spinoff Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Marvel's mind-bending Doctor Strange.

But you can't talk about fall movies without talking about awards. Here's how we're reading the landscape so far on The Oscar Map:

Best Picture

Many have written off Birth of a Nation, but there's still plenty of time to turn this campaign around and squeak into the race -- if Academy voters can separate the art from the artist. And if the art is well-received. That's just the kind of thing awards consultants are paid big money to accomplish.

While some will assume that Moonlight, Fencesor Hidden Figuresnow stand a better chance with Birthon the brink of awards death, the truth is, these films couldn’t be more different. Birthis about hate, revenge and justice; Moonlightis about love. Those who have seen the latter have compared it to Brokeback Mountain, a heartbreaking film that still came up short with voters. And Hidden Figureshas yet to screen.

With a changing Academy membership and the media eager to embrace inclusion. In a few short months, we'll find out whether everyone is serious about ending #OscarsSoWhite, or merely posturing for the press.

My semi-longshot to land a Best Picture nomination is Peter Berg's manhunt movie Patriot's Day, which chronicles the Boston Marathon bombing. An even longer shot is ESPN's 7.5-hour documentary O.J.: Made in America, a staggering masterpiece that deserves to be in the conversation, even if it has its own category.

Ezra Edelman's epic historical document is a brilliant piece of filmmaking that managed to reframe the Simpson story even as it shed new light on the most pored-over criminal investigation in U.S. history since the JFK assassination.

And keep your eye on the Weinstein Company's Lion, which could roar its way to a nomination given Harvey Weinstein's Midas touch.

The Nominees-- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, TheBirth of a Nation, Fences, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, A Monster Calls, Moonlight, Patriot’s Day, Sully

The Alternate-- Live by Night(presuming it comes out this year) or Silence

The Dark Horse-- O.J.: Made in America

Best Director

Two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee promises to push the technological envelope with the high frame-rate, 3D war movie Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, while Oscar winner Martin Scorsese promises to test your patience (and your stomach) with his violent three-hour period drama Silence.

Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) has drawn raves for his gorgeous and touching love story La La Land, while Snowdenis said to be a return to form for Oliver Stone.

Elsewhere, Kenneth Lonergan will have to work the circuit hard so voters don't simply reward him with a screenwriting nomination, and actor-directors such as Denzel Washington, Ben Affleck, Ewan McGregor and Nate Parker also have their work cut out for them.

The Nominees-- Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk), Martin Scorsese (Silence), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

The Next 5-- Denzel Washington (Fences), Clint Eastwood (Sully), Ben Affleck (Live By Night), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)

The Dark Horses-- Jeff Nichols (Loving), Garth Davis (Lion), Stephen Gaghan (Gold), John Lee Hancock (The Founder), Morten Tyldum (Passengers), J.A. Bayona (A Monster Calls), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Peter Berg (Patriot's Day), Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral), Oliver Stone (Snowden), Andrea Arnold (American Honey), Ben Younger (Bleed For This), Mira Nair (Queen of Katwe), Amma Asante (A United Kingdom), Stephen Frears (Florence Foster Jenkins), Rob Reiner (LBJ), David Frankel (Collateral Beauty)

Best Actor

This is always the most competitive category given the sheer number of male leads in fall films, though the lineup feels a little thin this year.

At this point, only Casey Affleck feels like a lock, and who knows whether a pair of sexual harassment lawsuits he settled with two female crew members from I'm Still Herewill come back to haunt him a la Nate Parker, whose performance as rebellious slave Nat Turner is the clear highlight of the otherwise over-hyped Sundance sensation Birth of a Nation.

Denzel Washington and Tom Hanks seem like likely contenders at this stage, theoretically leaving two open slots. Andrew Garfield has two strong chances between his work in Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridgeand Martin Scorsese’s Silence.

The final slot could go to A-listers Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Jake Gyllenhaal or Ben Affleck, whose Live By Nightis expected to sneak into the race this December. That said, the 5-slot could also go to a young actor such as Miles Teller, Dev Patel, Joseph Gordon-Levitt or Joe Alwyn, the newcomer who plays the title role in Ang Lee’s Sony movie Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.

The Nominees-- Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Denzel Washington (Fences), Tom Hanks (Sully), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridgeor Silence), Michael Keaton (The Founder)

The Next 5 -- Matthew McConaughey (Gold), Dev Patel (Lion), Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), Miles Teller (Bleed for This), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)

The Dark Horses-- Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Brad Pitt (Allied) Ben Affleck (Live By Night), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Bryan Cranston (The Infiltrator), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), David Oyelowo (A United Kingdom), Chris Pratt (Passengers), Nate Parker (TheBirth of a Nation), Mark Wahlberg (Patriot's Day), Woody Harrelson (LBJ)

Best Actress

Ruth Negga and Emma Stone have drawn strong notices for their respective work in Lovingand La La Land, though they'll be competing with past Oscar winners such as Natalie Portman (Jackie), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers) and Marion Cotillard (Allied).

Meanwhile, Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) and Annette Bening (20th Century Women) should be counted out at your own peril. For what it's worth, I loved Susan Sarandon and Sally Field in first-half comedies The Meddlerand Hello, My Name Is Doris, and it shouldn't matter that those films were released outside of awards season.

The Nominees-- Viola Davis (Fences), Ruth Negga (Loving), Emma Stone (La La Land), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Natalie Portman (Jackie)

The Next 5-- Marion Cotillard (Allied), Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers)

The Dark Horses-- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans), Rooney Mara (Una), Susan Sarandon (The Meddler), Sally Field (Hello, My Name Is Doris), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Felicity Jones (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Sasha Lane (American Honey), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Witch), Rosamund Pike (A United Kingdom), Jennifer Connelly (American Pastoral)

Best Supporting Actor

Just as it is each year, there's no shortage of options in this category, but at this stage in the game, it's too early to definitively say who will separate themselves -- first from their co-stars, and then from the rest of the pack.

Moonlight, Silence, Fencesand Patriot's Dayall boast multiple supporting actors to choose from, but the cream always rises to the top, and it'll be up to voters to separate the wheat from the chaff.

The Nominees-- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Liam Neeson (Silence), Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash), Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This)

The Next 5- Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight), Adam Driver (Silence), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)

The Dark Horses-- Andre Holland (Moonlight), Tadanobu Asano (Silence), Riz Ahmed (Una), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals), Edgar Ramirez (Gold), Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Vince Vaughn (Hacksaw Ridge), Shia LaBeouf (American Honey), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Sam Neill (Hunt for the Wilderpeople), Forest Whitaker (Arrivalor Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), David Wenham (Lion), Hugh Grant or Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Edward Norton or Michael Pena (Collateral Beauty), Steve Martin or Vin Diesel (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk), Mykelti Williamson, Russell Hornsby or Stephen Henderson (Fences), John Goodman, J.K. Simmons or Kevin Bacon (Patriot's Day), Chris Messina, Chris Cooper or Brendan Gleeson (Live by Night), Tom Wilkinson or Zachary Quinto (Snowden).

Best Supporting Actress

There are a ton of strong contenders in this category, which isn't always the case. This year, however, features an embarrassment of riches.

Felicity Jones and Molly Shannon delivered devastating performances as mothers dying of cancer, while Naomie Harris is said to steal the show in Moonlight, drawing comparisons to Mo'Nique's Oscar-winning turn in Precious. Don't you dare sleep on Michelle Williams, who is wonderful in her brief turn opposite Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.

The Nominees-- Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Michelle Williams (Manchester By the Sea), Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls), Molly Shannon (Other People), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals)

The Next 5-- Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe), Kristen Stewart (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk), Laura Linney (Sully)

The Dark Horses-- Janelle Monae (Hidden Figuresor Moonlight), Margo Martindale (The Hollars), Dakota Fanning (American Pastoral), Rooney Mara (Lion), Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren or Keira Knightley (Collateral Beauty), Zoe Saldana, Sienna Miller or Elle Fanning (Live by Night), Shailene Woodley or Melissa Leo (Snowden)

Top 20 Box Office Contenders of Fall

You didn't think we'd forget about the elephants in the room -- the big, bad blockbusters -- did you? Rogue Oneand Fantastic Beastswill be tough to beat, but a quartet of animated movies will give it their best shot along with a handful of A-listers, ranging from Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt to Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt, Mark Wahlberg and Denzel Washington.

Here's my predictions for how the box office could shake out ...

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them3. Trolls4. Moana5. Sing6. Doctor Strange7. Passengers8. Inferno9. Storks10. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back11. The Magnificent Seven12. The Girl on the Train13. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children14. Assassin's Creed15.Office Christmas Party16.Deepwater Horizon17. Arrival18. Allied19.Bridget Jones' Baby20. Blair Witchor Rings

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